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The odds of a specific player having aces is combin (4,2)/combin(52,2) = 6/1326. The odds of the next player having a pair of kings is combin(4,2)/combin(50,2) = 6/1225. However, in a ten-player game there are 10 possible players who could get the aces, and 9 possible players for the kings.

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• Odds Of Winning Texas Holdem With Pocket Aces
• Texas Holdem Pocket Aces Odds Free

Mark | Poker Articles, Poker Rules

Getting dealt pocket Aces

This is an article about one of the best or worst (depending on the point of view) situations in poker, namely the AA vs KK hand including odds and probabilities for AA vs KK.

Every poker player loves to look down on their hole cards and see a pair of aces staring back at them. It really is a beautiful site, albeit a rather rare one that will only happen, on average, once in every 221 hands dealt but when they do find their way to your hand it is a joyous occasion as you hold the best starting hand in Texas Hold’em.

One of the problems with aces, whether using the Betfair Poker code or not, is that they do not come around very often and when they do you often find yourself winning a relatively small pot with them. However, one occasion when you will be an odds on favorite to win a substantial pot is when one of your opponents has been dealt a pair of kings, the classic AA vs KK confrontation!

Odds and probability of AA vs KK happening

The odds of being dealt any specific pocket pair, such as aces, is 220-to-1 but the odds of being dealt a pair of aces and then someone at the same table being dealt pocket kings is slightly less as the two aces have been removed from the 52-card deck. This means that the odds of someone being dealt a pair of kings when you have aces is 205-to-1. However, that only applies when you are heads-up against a single player, against a full table with nine other opponents you will find yourself in an AA vs KK situation once in every 20 times you are dealt aces.

The reason having aces against kings is usually so profitable is that the player with kings rarely worries about his opponent having a higher pair as it will only happen to them around 4.4% of the time they hold kings so will generally be willing to commit their entire stack. The problem is that when they do put their chips into the middle they will be doing so with very little equity, in fact they will be around an 82% underdog in the hand.

Winning with AA vs KK

Betfair poker pundits note how being dominated by a higher pair is disastrous for the lower pair as they almost always have to hit a set (one of their two remaining cards) in order to win. Sometimes the lower pair can hit an unlikely straight or flush to prevail against the higher pair but this is very rare, even more so in the case of AA vs KK as the kings are ranked so closely aces. Indeed, sharing the same suits lessens the chances of a win for the kings, for example a pair of black aces against a pair of black kings will see the former win 82.64% of the time but black aces “only” win red kings 81.26% of the time, which although a minor difference can be quite large over a significant sample size.

Famous AA vs KK confrontations

Although we have already ascertained that AA vs KK confrontations do not happen as often as we would like to believe, when they do occur they are usually high profile as the pots are more significant and if the aces lose a big deal is made due to them being an overwhelming favourite. The biggest hand of this type in recent times was at the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event final table, which Joe Cada eventually won. In the hand Kevin Schaffel raised from middle position to 1,250,000 holding AhAc, Steve Begleiter called in the cutoff but Eric Buchman, on the button, looked down at KhKc and made it 5,750,000 to play.

With the action back on Schaffel, he moved all-in for 17,200,000 chips in total, forcing Begleiter out of the pot but Buchman quickly called. As Schaffel’s aces were of the same suit as Buchman’s kings he was an 82.64% favourite but that all changed when the flop came down Qs-Jh-Ks, giving Buchman a set! Shaffel still had around a 21% chance to win as he could have hit a ten for a straight or an ace for a higher set but the Kd fell on the turn, giving his opponent quad kings and the hand. The meaningless 9c arrive on the turn and Schaffel was eliminated in eighth place, worth $1,300,231.

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My brother was telling me about a hand he played last night in an online Hold-Em tourney. He got crap hands for the first 25 hands of the tourney and did nothing but fold, then, as Big Blind, got pocket Aces.
There were FOUR all-ins before he even got a chance ot bet.
He KNEW that meant that at least one ace was already out there, probably at least one other pocket pair, etc, but he called anyway, and lost to someone else's pair making a set.
His question is, what were the odds it would have held up?
He knows that heads-up, Aces are a big favorite, but against four other players?
I told him:
It doesn't matter how many players were dealt.
It doesn't matter how many players went all-in or when they went all-in.
It only matters how many players were still in at the showdown.
Am I right?
And what WERE the odds?
ThanksIn a previous WoO post, the Wizard but the odds at somewhere between 31.36% (10 players, no one folds) and 70% (estimate of real conditions):

Wizard of Odds (http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/155 ) I've been a huge fan for many years (even before you got interested in poker and sports betting) and looked forward to every Ask The Wizard column. It's great to see you're doing them again! My question is this: at my local card room, they offer Aces Cracked, Win A Rack during certain hours. That is, if you have pocket Aces in one of their 3-6 or 4-8 Texas Hold 'Em games and you lose the pot, the casino will give you a rack of chips ($100). I'm trying to figure out how often a)I get pocket Aces b)how often they would lose if I played them aggressively as I'm supposed to and c)whether it's not better to just check all the way down and hope to lose, as $100 is usually better than what the pot would have been anyway. Any stats you may have at the ready would be wonderful and forever appreciated! Thanks again and keep up enlightening the masses! - Shane from Santa Rosa
Thanks for the kind words. The probability you will get pocket aces in any one hand is 6/1326, or once every 221 hands. According to my 10-player Texas Hold 'em section (/holdem/10players.html) the probability of winning with pocket aces is 31.36%, assuming all players stay in until the end. However that is a big if. If forced to make a guess I'd estimate the probability of winning with aces in a real 10-player game is about 70%. So the probability of getting pocket aces and then losing is 0.3*(1/221) = 0.1357%. So, at $100 per incident that is worth 13.57 cents per hand. Over ten people that costs the poker room $1.36 per hand on average, which cuts into the rake quite a bit. I tend to agree with your strategy of calling, which will keep more players in the hand, and increase your chance of losing.

I feel for your brother, but pre-flop, he had no choice but to call. It would have been different if he could have isolated some other players, but with the four all-ins, he was no worse than tied for the best hand at the time.He was definitely an underdog, no matter what the other four hands were. He was, to simplify the calculation a bit, an 80% favorite against any one person, but since he had to beat all four, he was (.8)(4) to win the hand, or about 42%.
In a cash game, folding Aces preflop is a very dumb move. In a tourney, it would be similarly dumb, except in some situations where the holder of the Aces is near cashing, or already in the money with very little chance to move up. An extreme example would be five players left, four of them have $100,000 in chips and the fifth has $5,000. Before the fifth player acts, the first four go all in. The fifth player shouldn't even look at his hand, but even if he does, and sees pocket Aces, he should still throw his hand away.
Given that this was still early in the tournament, however, your friend had absolutely no choice but to call. He should have thought of this as an opportunity--getting 4-1 odds when he was only about a 4-to-3 underdog!

Given that this was still early in the tournament, however, your friend had absolutely no choice but to call. He should have thought of this as an opportunity--getting 4-1 odds when he was only about a 4-to-3 underdog!

Only an underdog against the entire field, right? But a favorite against any individual member of the field? To me, that distinction matters. For example, if the 5 players had win shares of 42%, 28%, 15%, 10%, 5%, then the guy with a 42% chance of prevailing should be viewed as the favorite.

Texas Holdem Poker Odds Chart

Odds Of Winning Texas Holdem With Pocket Aces

Only an underdog against the entire field, right? But a favorite against any individual member of the field? To me, that distinction matters. For example, if the 5 players had win shares of 42%, 28%, 15%, 10%, 5%, then the guy with a 42% chance of prevailing should be viewed as the favorite.

Yes, he is the favorite, but his most likely outcome is that he will lose. Just like a horse that has the lowest price on him at, say 2-1. Or how the Yankees (or whomever) might be a favorite in any head-to-head matchup, but they are still a big underdog to win the World Series.

Texas Holdem Pocket Aces Odds Free